Rand Holds Steady Ahead of SARB Rate Decision

Good morning,

Welcome to Wednesday, which feels like a Friday thanks to tomorrow’s public holiday. While South Africa looks forward to a relaxed few days — with Friday being more of a token effort for most — the currency market has a busy few days ahead, with a major event taking place in the US tomorrow.

Mid rates at 6:00 today:

Currency	Rate
USD	R16.19
GBP	R21.57
EUR	R18.51
AUD	R11.50
DXY	100.72
Brent Crude	$98.38 per barrel

Market News

• Yesterday gave the market plenty to digest in a single day. The Dollar Index moved higher, but the Rand was somewhat shielded, briefly touching R16.16 to the Dollar and snapping its ten-day sideways drift in the low R16.20s. There’s a lot for the market to track at the moment, but hopefully the Rand’s good fortune holds while South Africa enjoys tomorrow’s break.
• Currency and equity markets have taken most of their direction lately from the oil price — a concerning headwind as recently as a week ago, when Brent Crude climbed to $108 a barrel on escalating tensions in the Middle East. The good news is that some of those concerns have eased, with Brent falling back to $98 a barrel. That move has helped the Nasdaq reach a fresh record high, with the S&P 500 sitting just 0.4% below its own record. It has also helped the Rand break below its recent trading range, given South Africa’s heavy reliance on oil imports.
• The improvement in Brent’s pricing comes down to several factors: Saudi Arabia reopening its East-West pipeline after drone-attack damage; reports that China has been quietly pressuring Iran to scale back its actions in the region; reports that Iran says it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz quickly if the US eases its military campaign; and, most significantly, confirmation that US and Iranian officials held three hours of talks yesterday on the sidelines of the UN summit in New York. It wasn’t all good news, however — Trump said yesterday he is still deciding between striking a deal or “annihilating” Iran — but the overall trend is positive, and that’s clearly feeding through into the oil price.
• The Rand will be hoping Middle East headlines keep improving, but currency and equity markets will also be watching Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first state visit to the US in a decade, with the main event taking place tomorrow. Major trade breakthroughs seem unlikely, but the market is mainly hoping for no breakdown in the status quo — ideally a one-year extension to the current trade agreement. The two leaders are also expected to discuss the US-China AI race, so here’s hoping that doesn’t upset the apple cart. With any luck, the Rand emerges unscathed from this high-powered meeting, though there is real potential for volatility should the relationship sour.
• Closer to home, the SARB usually delivers its monetary policy statement on a Thursday, but with tomorrow being a public holiday, the update comes today instead. With our latest CPI report — also due today — expected to rise from 4.3% to 4.5%, the market anticipates the SARB will lift the interest rate by 25 basis points to cool inflation. Conventional wisdom holds that currencies tend to strengthen when rates rise, so it will be worth watching whether that holds true for the Rand, even if SA consumers won’t be celebrating the news.
• Local market data today: the August CPI report at 10:00, followed by the SARB announcement at 15:00.
• Possible USD mid-rate trading range for the Rand today: R16.05–R16.35.

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