We wake this morning to major news out of the Middle East, news that will dominate headlines for the next few days at least while also putting pressure on the Rand as a risk asset. Israel has attacked Iran and a retaliation is all but certain.

The game has changed in the Middle East with America now being directly involved in the Isreal vs Iran conflict. The world is on tenterhooks as we wait to see what Iran’s response will be, but for the time being the reaction in the currency market has been surprisingly muted.

Windows users will know and fear Microsoft’s “blue screen of death”, a screen that appears when there’s a critical error with your operating system and which requires a restart to (hopefully) fix the problem. This error screen has been around since the early 1990’s but in a few months’ time it will be retired, never to plague our computers again, but it will be replaced with a new black error screen so we are not safe just yet.

The Rand opens at R17.72 as global markets react to a massive US/EU trade deal and anticipated rate decisions from the FED and SARB. With tariffs easing, investor confidence is building could this be a turning point for emerging markets?

After six straight months of decline, the Dollar Index (DXY) appears poised to record its first monthly gain of 2025, while the Euro is on track for its first drop this year. The Rand, having briefly touched R17.98/USD yesterday, is holding its breath, hoping this isn’t the start of a sustained Dollar rally.